© Getty / Estadao Conteudo / srs
Política / Poder Data/ Aya
O presidente da República e pré-candidato à reeleição, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), lidera a disputa pelo Palácio do Planalto tanto no primeiro quanto no segundo turno, de acordo com a pesquisa PoderData/Aya divulgada nesta quinta-feira, 30. Na primeira etapa, Lula aparece com 41% das intenções de voto, enquanto o senador Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) aparece em segundo lugar, com 35%.
O ex-governador de Goiás Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) tem 5%, seguido pelo influenciador Renan Santos (Missão), com 4%. O ex-governador de Minas Gerais Romeu Zema (Novo) e o psiquiatra Augusto Cury (Avante) registram 3% cada. Outros 5% votariam em branco ou anulariam o voto, enquanto 4% não souberam responder.
O levantamento ouviu 2,4 mil eleitores com 16 anos ou mais em 677 municípios das 27 unidades da Federação entre os dias 26 e 29 de julho. A margem de erro é de dois pontos porcentuais, com intervalo de confiança de 95%. A pesquisa está registrada no Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) sob o protocolo BR-07845/2026.
Na comparação com a rodada anterior, realizada entre 12 e 15 de julho, Lula e Flávio oscilaram um ponto porcentual para cima de 40% para 41% e de 34% para 35%, respectivamente. As variações ocorreram dentro da margem de erro, indicando estabilidade no cenário.
Em um eventual segundo turno entre Lula e Flávio, o petista aparece numericamente à frente, com 46%, ante 43% do senador. Os dois estão tecnicamente empatados. Outros 9% votariam em branco ou anulariam o voto, e 2% não souberam responder. Na rodada anterior, Lula tinha 45% e Flávio, 43%.
Lula também aparece à frente de Renan Santos em um eventual segundo turno, por 45% a 37%. Nesse cenário, 15% votariam em branco ou anulariam o voto, e 4% não souberam responder. Contra Zema, o petista registra 44%, ante 42% do adversário, configurando empate técnico; brancos e nulos somam 10%, e 3% não souberam responder. Em um confronto com Caiado, Lula marca 44%, ante 43% do adversário, também em situação de empate técnico.
A pesquisa também mediu o potencial de voto dos dois líderes. Entre os entrevistados, 36% disseram que Lula é o único candidato em quem votariam e 11% afirmaram que poderiam escolhê-lo. Outros 49% não votariam no petista de jeito nenhum e 4% não souberam responder.
No caso de Flávio, 31% disseram que ele é o único candidato em quem votariam e 14% admitiram a possibilidade de apoiá-lo. A rejeição ao senador também é de 49%, enquanto 6% não souberam responder.
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