O Boletim Focus (uma compilação feita pelo Banco Central das projeções de economistas de bancos e consultorias) também divulgado ontem voltou a mostrar aumento na estimativa de crescimento econômico para este ano, mas desta vez de forma marginal.
nOsecretário de Política Econômica do Ministério da Fazenda, Guilherme Mello, disse nesta segunda-feira, 3, que a pasta está revisando os cenários de crescimento e que a estimativa para a variação do PIB em 2023 deve ficar agora entre 2,5% e 3% em 2023. Ele representou o ministro da Fazenda, Fernando Haddad, na reunião de instalação da comissão temática de assuntos econômicos do Conselho de Desenvolvimento Econômico Social e Sustentável (mais conhecido como “Conselhão”).nn”Nossa previsão inicial era de 2%, enquanto mercado esperava menos de 1%. Mas esse cenário será revisado para cima. Estamos mais próximos da realidade de crescimento de 2,5% a 3% neste ano”, afirmou o secretário.nnO Boletim Focus (uma compilação feita pelo Banco Central das projeções de economistas de bancos e consultorias) também divulgado ontem voltou a mostrar aumento na estimativa de crescimento econômico para este ano, mas desta vez de forma marginal. A mediana para a alta do PIB em 2023 subiu de 2,18% para 2,19%, ante 1,68% há um mês.nnMello trabalha com a revisão das expectativas nas próximas semanas no Focus. Aos integrantes do Conselhão, o secretário afirmou que o cenário econômico melhorou, com inflação e juros de longo prazo em queda, enquanto a taxa de câmbio estaria mais próxima do equilíbrio. Segundo ele, isso vai incentivar a retomada dos investimentos.nnO secretário disse que essa melhoria no cenário é importante para “a harmonização” da política macroeconômica. “Estamos fazendo um trabalho muito duro no fiscal”, disse ele, citando ações de reconstrução da base fiscal, o novo arcabouço e mudanças microeconômicas, como o marco das garantias.nnNa avaliação de Mello, essas ações, em conjunto com a mudança no sistema de meta de inflação – de ano-calendário para contínua, sacramentado na semana passada pelo Conselho Monetário Nacional (CMN) – vão colaborar para “harmonizar” as políticas fiscal e monetária, o que se refletirá na taxa de juros. O governo tem feito pressão sobre o BC para o início de um ciclo de corte da Selic – mantida em 13,75% ao ano desde agosto do ano passado.nn’Custo adequado’nnApesar dessas críticas do governo, o diretor de Relacionamento, Cidadania e Supervisão de Conduta do BC, Maurício Moura, afirmou que a surpresa positiva do desempenho do PIB no começo do ano mostraria que o enfrentamento à inflação está ocorrendo com o menor custo para a economia.nn”O processo de combate à inflação tende a ter repercussão na economia. Mas as amostras de que o PIB está crescendo e a inflação está caindo mostram que estamos indo no caminho certo, com custo adequado, sem penalizar a economia”, afirmou ele, em participação na LiveBC, realizada semanalmente pela autarquia.nnEmbora a Selic esteja estacionada há sete reuniões consecutivas do Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom), Moura destacou que os juros futuros já estão caindo, melhorando as condições para os tomadores que buscam recursos para fazer investimentos.nnAs informações são do jornal O Estado de S. Paulo. / POR SRS
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